Joey Votto is not your grandpas Hall of Famer, but he absolutely belongs

Joey Votto, Hall of Famer. Get used to seeing that, hearing that, reading that, because if there is one thing that his 2,000th hit made clear this week is that of course Joey Votto is a Hall of Famer. That shouldn’t even be a question anymore.

No, the lone question remaining about Joey Votto’s Hall of Fame case now is whether he’ll make it on the first ballot.

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Joey Votto is more than just a future Hall of Famer, you see. He’s the epitome of the modern Hall of Fame player.

The major milestones of 3,000 hits and 500 home runs have long been automatic qualifiers for the Hall of Fame. Those numbers still make easy work of the Hall voting process, but baseball has changed since Joey Votto debuted on Sept. 4, 2007. It’s become more nuanced, taking context into account even in the numbers. Evaluating greatness is no longer limited to newspaper boxscores, but something that is deeper than a single number — even one as indispensable as Jay Jaffe’s JAWS (which has Votto as pretty much the definition of an average Hall of Fame first baseman).

No, what Votto does is different. Drafted in the so-called “Moneyball” draft in 2002 (the A’s took seven players before the Reds took Votto, the Canadian God of Walks, in the second round that year), Votto supplanted Scott Hatteberg not only as the Reds’ first baseman in 2008 but also as the poster child for the change in the conventional wisdom in the game.

One of the byproducts of “Moneyball” and its influence in the popular understanding of the game is the decreased emphasis on batting average and the rise of on-base percentage, the singular stat that has defined Votto’s career more than WAR or any of the numbers decried by critics of Votto and the modern game. In the 2010s, Votto led the National League in on-base percentage seven times. If he had led the league in batting average seven times, there wouldn’t even be a question as to his Cooperstown credentials. As a collective, though, we’ve gradually come to recognize that on-base percentage (or, you know, not making outs) is more important than batting average and Votto was the best in his league in seven of those 10 years. Of those three seasons, he didn’t lead the league in on-base percentage, only one (2019) could be described as a “down” year. The others were a season when he was limited to 62 games (2014) and another (2015) where his .459 on-base percentage was a point behind Bryce Harper (.460).

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While those batting average-focused critics are an ever-shrinking percentage of the Hall of Fame voters (no longer do voters hold on to their ballot for life), they still exist and they will still exist when Votto finds himself on the ballot in seven or so years.

So, what does one say to those who don’t want to look at WAR, wRC+, OPS+ or anything else that will easily put Votto’s greatness into context?

Well, for that, I turn to a voter whose first ballot included boxes checked for Joe Morgan and Jim Palmer to debunk the remaining myths surrounding Joey Votto’s Hall of Fame case: Jayson Stark.

Myth No. 1: 2,000 hits shouldn’t buy you a trip to Cooperstown

Contrary to the easy hot takes from the old-school crowd, 3,000 hits was never some sort of minimum threshold to board the Cooperstown express.

Hall of Fame hitters who got 3,000 hits: 25

Hall of Fame hitters with under 3,000 hits: 135 (Source: baseball-reference.com)

Here’s a very selective list of HOF hitters who didn’t even get as many hits as Votto has already: Bill Dickey (1,969), Lou Boudreau (1,779), Hank Greenberg (1,628), Hack Wilson (1,461) and Ralph Kiner (1,451).

Here’s another very selective list, of HOF corner infielders who finished their careers with 2,300 hits or fewer (which is approximately where FanGraphs projects Votto will end up): Eddie Mathews (2,315), Jeff Bagwell (2,314), Ron Santo (2,254), Mike Schmidt (2,234), Willie McCovey (2,211) and Harmon Killebrew (2,086).

Obviously, that group made it to Cooperstown for other reasons — most of which can be summed up as “a lot of home runs.” Which brings us to …

Myth No. 2: 2,000 hits and 300 homers aren’t enough

Really? Let’s just assume that Votto will finish his career with under 2,500 hits and 400 homers. Granted, it’s been a long time since a future Hall of Fame corner infielder with that combination of numbers roamed the baseball earth. But it’s not unprecedented. Here are the last five:

Hall of Fame corner infield comparables

So yes, it’s been almost half a century. But … how many players on that list have both an OBP and SLUG as good as Joey Votto’s? That would be none. Which reminds us of …

Myth No. 3: He’s never led the league in any triple crown category

Nope. You’ve got us there. Joey Votto has never won a batting title. Or a home run title. Or an RBI title. That’s all true. But here’s our question: Why are we still looking at those categories as Hall of Fame requirements here in the 21st century?

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As Trent writes, there’s a category just as important that Votto has pretty much owned, in a way almost no modern player has. This man has led his league in on-base percentage seven times — and did that it seven times in nine years (2010-18) for that matter. Now that we understand how much OBP means in this age we live in, let’s think about the magnitude of having a seven-time OBP champ roaming around our world.

Here’s a complete list of every hitter since 1900 who led his league in OBP at least seven times, and the stretch over which they did it:

Seven-time OBP leaders

See any non-greats on that list? We don’t. But remember, Votto won seven OBP titles in a decade. So that puts him in even more exclusive territory.

Let’s narrow this list to only players who won at least seven in any 10-year period. Do that, and you get this group: Hornsby (eight), Williams (seven), Ruth (seven), Cobb (seven) … and Joey Votto! How’s that for a Mount Rushmore of OBP?

One more thing! You should also know that except for Bonds, everyone since 1900 with even five OBP titles (or more) is in the Hall of Fame. The others: Carl Yastrzemski (5), Stan Musial (6) and Wade Boggs (6). So don’t think you can sway us with …

Myth No. 4: He’s only a Moneyball Hall of Famer

We haven’t spent one sentence of this piece discussing Votto’s wRC+, or his OPS-Plus, or even his Wins Above Average. He fares great in all of those categories, by the way. But we’re keeping this simple to get the attention of people who don’t speak that language.

Can’t we just agree that getting on base matters? And when you combine Votto’s on-base skills with his massive production, he clearly belongs on any list of all-time greats.

Votto is just the 14th player in history with 2,000 hits, plus 1,200 walks, plus one of those rarified .300/.400/.500 slash lines for his career. Eleven of those 14 are in the Hall:

Ty Cobb
Babe Ruth
Ted Williams
Stan Musial
Lou Gehrig
Mel Ott
Jimmie Foxx
Tris Speaker
Chipper Jones
Frank Thomas
Edgar Martinez

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So that leaves only three who are not in the Hall:

Manny Ramirez
Todd Helton
Joey Votto

Votto is still going, obviously. Helton is still on the ballot — and trending in the right direction. And if you need us to explain why Manny hasn’t given any speeches in Cooperstown, it’s shocking you’ve even read this far. But if you’re still on the fence, don’t even bother with …

Myth No. 5: All he does is walk

C’mon. Just stop it. Joey Votto is a man who has spent the last 15 years hitting for a high average, slugging .500 in as many qualifying seasons as George Brett or Mike Trout, and reaching base at a higher rate than just about anyone.

Here’s the list of players from the 2,000-hit club with the most times reaching base per game since 1900, according to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:

Ted Williams: 2.06

Lou Gehrig: 1.98

Ty Cobb: 1.823

Wade Boggs: 1.822

Tris Speaker: 1.792

Joey Votto: 1.789

Jeff Bagwell: 1.787

Or we could do this another way. Here’s a very selective list of Hall of Famers who are also in the 2,000-hit club — but who reached base fewer times than Votto has already (3,328 times):

Hall of Famers in Votto's on-base dust

There are 27 more names on that list, incidentally. Those are just the highlights. But remember, Joey Votto isn’t done.

He has been the best hitter in his league, by any possible measure, in the second half of this season. He has two more guaranteed seasons on his contract after this one. And no matter how much he might feel his age in those seasons, he is going to blow by many more magical Cooperstown names.

So he may not fit your grandpa’s definition of a Hall of Famer or even your teenage self’s vision of a Hall of Famer. But here in the year 2021, he’s exactly what a Hall of Fame baseball player is supposed to look like. And we’d say he’s paving the way for a lot more just like him except for one thing: There’s nobody quite like Joey Votto. Not now. Maybe not ever.

(Top photo: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)

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